Curse

Eragon Zarroc · Dec 09, 2008, 05:26 PM // 17:26

what is the drop rate? like 1 in 1,000,000?

Nessar · Dec 09, 2008, 05:27 PM // 17:27

Not wasting my time farming it. I know plenty of people who will. All I gotta say is goodluck lulz

netniwk · Dec 09, 2008, 05:29 PM // 17:29

I wonder what the person who implented it was thinking...
"Oh, let's code a minipet with a 0.000001% drop chance so that almost no one can enjoy it.."

slowerpoke · Dec 09, 2008, 05:31 PM // 17:31

ah yes, last xmas was full of lols

someone spotted the mini pre loaded in the update, we were told it was fake

near the end of the xmas event one turns up, its called a photoshop, then suddenly its real. only few hours left everyone goes into farming frenzy

now we have 2weeks of farmin to look forward to instead of sitting back and enjoying things, and by the sounds of it the chances of gettin that mini are no better

ThunderStruck · Dec 09, 2008, 05:31 PM // 17:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by netniwk

I wonder what the person who implented it was thinking...
"Oh, let's code a minipet with a 0.000001% drop chance so that almost no one can enjoy it.."

I take it you haven't seen some of the WoW drop rates, hmm?

The First Silvari · Dec 09, 2008, 05:45 PM // 17:45

I rezed an old PC Thread on the mini polar to see what it would go for these days but it got *Closed* immediately by someone. Anyone want to venture a guess on what they go for now? Thinking about arranging a guild group to farm it for a few days. ^^ If we get one to be sold and profits split YaY!

*Edit* a solo quest? darn!

*Edit* its like buying a lottery ticket, odds are you will not win but you do anyway cause the chance is there no matter how remote.

furanshisuko · Dec 09, 2008, 05:46 PM // 17:46

hmm so winters day... farm polar bear quests? or vaettirs??

netniwk · Dec 09, 2008, 05:55 PM // 17:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThunderStruck

I take it you haven't seen some of the WoW drop rates, hmm?

In fact I did, and that's why I quit after hitting 60
But because one game has crappy features is no excuse to implent it into your own.

wind fire and ice · Dec 09, 2008, 05:55 PM // 17:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by fenix

Around 3 dropped last year, that is all. If you believe otherwise, your information is incorrect.

This year, I imagine maybe another 10 will drop. It will be a stretch if over 20 will drop, so I would say 10-20 is a good guess. The drop rates are tiny, everyone knows this. Low player activity paired with a tiny chance of getting one means that not as many players will be farming it as you think.

4 dropped last year.

and no,not many people will be farming it,the insanely low drop rate makes it pointless to try if you really think about it,i doubt more then 8 more will drop.

Tullzinski · Dec 09, 2008, 06:01 PM // 18:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hissy

You could be right.

Although, I farmed the hell out of that quest last year without even knowing there was a chance of a polar bear: because it's quick, easy, and gives a lot of candy shards. I expect it will be the same this year.

It's an excellent farming spot even without the polar bear.

Shard drop rate is better than HM raptors - over 190/hour (about 130/hour from drops and quest reward... plus 5 goodies from the chest at the end of each run, which are equivelent to 2.5 wintersday gifts, which are equivelent to 5 shards each. Effective total: about 190 shards/hour, more if you're fast). And you don't need a high-level character, EotN, or a Raptor farming build to do it.

Makes a nice change from Raptors if you're after shards (wintersday prezzie stuff)... AND there's a chance of winning the polar bear lottery. Bonus! :-D

You hit the nail on the head Hissy, great spot for shards. I farmed that spot non stop since it was created, no polar bear though. Polar Bear is indeed gravy. It is also a great spot to level up new characters.

Thanks ANET for bringing it back, I for one appreciate it. Do not listen to the complaints, you all are doing a great job keep it up.

Just an afterthought, if more people are playing that spot....the frequency of payoff will occur more often correct? Kinda like a slot machine, the more you play the machine the more jackpots you hit. In this case it is free to play and it pays you in the process.

Vilaptca · Dec 09, 2008, 06:17 PM // 18:17

Its nice that we'll have something rare in this game still, but using a holiday event to drop it on us really isn't cool.

Make a stupid weekend event that adds rare stuff for one weekend, but everyone should be able to get everything from a holiday event without trying too hard.

I'll be on for my mask, but I'm not even going to bother with the polar bear, its not worth my time.

The Arching Healer · Dec 09, 2008, 06:26 PM // 18:26

I thought there were like 3 polar bear drops last wintersday. Considering now everyone knows about the 1mmort4l bear, I think ~50 bears will pop out now.

Tullzinski · Dec 09, 2008, 06:47 PM // 18:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Arching Healer

I thought there were like 3 polar bear drops last wintersday. Considering now everyone knows about the 1mmort4l bear, I think ~50 bears will pop out now.

No way lets get 500,000 people do that quest twice an hour for 12 days over all servers and time zones that 576 mini polar bears!!!

even better lets have 5 million players twice an hour for 12 days that 5760 minis! and then we can all share them for 2 days each during the year it will be a polar bear utopia.

too much time on my hands with my calculator

killerbot3009 · Dec 09, 2008, 06:49 PM // 18:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by lordheinous

WRONG, the bear doesn't drop from the normal secret lair, but from a seperate quest that takes place there accessed from one of the port cities. If you're going to crow like an idiot, at least know what you're talking about first please.

firsly i was at college when reading this thread and wiki is blocked, so i couldnt actually see the quest thing. but somone did say that the dungeon was a waste of time, just to clear that up

HawkofStorms · Dec 09, 2008, 06:51 PM // 18:51

I agree with Shayne Hawke. I'd rather spend my time playing snowball arena (only 11 wins away from getting rank 3 skillz and my gamer HoM statute) which is definately my favorite holiday game as it requires more skill then luck (a la rollerbettle).

And vaetarr's are a better bet if you want to far for CC shards and wintersday drops. If I'm going to mindlessly farm, I'd rather take a sure thing at making ~50-100k then a 1 in a billion chance of making 100k + xxx ecto.

Still, best of luck to everybody who is farming for these. There should only be another ~10 or so polar bears this year if the drop rate really is the same.

PS I find it funny even a year later that so many people are confused and don't know where this thing drops. If I go to Umbral and see a ton of people farming the Wintersday past chest for this in game I'm going to laugh.

PPS Everybody claiming prices will plumett or they got a polar bear last year (or 2, or they knew a guy who knew a guy) stop trolling trying to drive down prices.

Tramp · Dec 09, 2008, 06:57 PM // 18:57

This will be the most farmed item over a discrete period of time in the history of guildwars. I predict not hundreds but many, many, many thousands of farmers. The only question is what is the drop rate. Last year there was not enough time and confusion about the legitimacy to determine an estimated drop rate. What is the drop rate? Can Regina tell us? I need to know if I should spend my time shoving people out of the way to get to the NPC giving the quest... or if I should set aside ectos and buy it.

Figure farmers can earn 30k/hour doing basic farming. Figure ectos = 4.75k. This is my back of the envelope time value calculation:

Drop rate:
1:100 x 10 minutes = 1k minutes = 16.6 hours x 30k/h = 105e
1:1,000 x 10 minutes = 10k minutes = 166.6 hours x 30k/h = 1050e
1:10,000 x 10 minutes = 100k minutes = 1666.6 hours x 30k/h = 10,500e
1:100,000 x 10 minutes = 1M minutes = 16,666.6 hours x 30k/h = 105,000e

If the drop rate is reasonable at 1:100 or 1:1000 then I going for it and will have fun farming. If it is crazy insane odds...then forget it. Time is better spent reading a book. This isnt my estimate of what it is worth... just what your time would be worth to farm it at given drop rates. Since so many people will be farming, and so few people have thousands of ectos to spend, my guess is it will never be a 10k ecto or 100k ecto pet. No way. Supply will be greater than demand at those crazy kind of prices. Drop down into the 1.5k, 2k, 3k, 4k ecto price range and I can see demand sucking up supply at the really bad drop rates.

So what is the real drop rate? I just went to the library and got 3 good books to start reading. Need to know if I should spend the next 10 days excersizing my fingers to get ready for farming/button mashing... or start cracking the books open early. Can Regina tell us?

Tullzinski · Dec 09, 2008, 07:11 PM // 19:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tramp

This will be the most farmed item over a discrete period of time in the history of guildwars. I predict not hundreds but many, many, many thousands of farmers. The only question is what is the drop rate. Last year there was not enough time and confusion about the legitimacy to determine an estimated drop rate. What is the drop rate? Can Regina tell us? I need to know if I should spend my time shoving people out of the way to get to the NPC giving the quest... or if I should set aside ectos and buy it.

Figure farmers can earn 30k/hour doing basic farming. Figure ectos = 4.75k. This is my back of the envelope time value calculation:

Drop rate:
1:100 x 10 minutes = 1k minutes = 16.6 hours x 30k/h = 105e
1:1,000 x 10 minutes = 10k minutes = 166.6 hours x 30k/h = 1050e
1:10,000 x 10 minutes = 100k minutes = 1666.6 hours x 30k/h = 10,500e
1:100,000 x 10 minutes = 1M minutes = 16,666.6 hours x 30k/h = 105,000e

If the drop rate is reasonable at 1:100 or 1:1000 then I going for it and will have fun farming. If it is crazy insane odds...then forget it. Time is better spent reading a book. This isnt my estimate of what it is worth... just what your time would be worth to farm it at given drop rates. Since so many people will be farming, and so few people have thousands of ectos to spend, my guess is it will never be a 10k ecto or 100k ecto pet. No way. Supply will be greater than demand at those crazy kind of prices. Drop down into the 1.5k, 2k, 3k, 4k ecto price range and I can see demand sucking up supply at the really bad drop rates.

So what is the real drop rate? I just went to the library and got 3 good books to start reading. Need to know if I should spend the next 10 days excersizing my fingers to get ready for farming/button mashing... or start cracking the books open early. Can Regina tell us?

1:1000000 I believe is the rate. If it is 1:100000 then I will have to revise my numbers above!!!

Fates · Dec 09, 2008, 07:15 PM // 19:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tullzinski

1:1000000 I believe is the rate.

You're talking out of your ass. You, and everyone else that thinks they know the drop rate. A-net has never published any drop rates.

Louis1976 · Dec 09, 2008, 07:25 PM // 19:25

I see, there are a lot of Pros here who know a shizzle lot about rare petz and who know the exactly number of Polarz in teh game - oh, and they of course know some guys who would spend 10000armbraces for teh bear!!!!11

lol - imagine price to drop <2000e

I had bought my Polar in July for 6000 or 7000 ecto, don't remember exact amount, and actually I kinda overpaid. Had a hard time selling it, finally dedicated it and sold for something like 3500-4000e - people were afraid of this event and dropping prices, and imo they were right. We'll see.

ValaOfTheFens · Dec 09, 2008, 07:38 PM // 19:38

As cute as it is, I'd sell it quick.

I love my mini Lich and its my mini of choice.